How well do our energy models answer our questions — do they provide frameworks to analyze our energy /climate challenges? What price, how much supply:demand imbalance, and where should we invest? Over the past fifty years our energy models have evolved and become more sophisticated, however the questions remains, how well have they predicted prices and been able to map out our changing energy landscape?

In this slide discussion John will briefly describe the historical evolution of the energy economy / models that have attempted to answer different demands and different questions at different points in time.

From the early Hoteling and Hubbert: resource supply curve peaks and declines. To VAR, price volatility, and complex oil market: supply and demand surprises with Heterogeneous producers.  Of course, we know that none of our models have been able to fully capture the boom-bust cycles of our energy markets, nor predict prices in two to three years, or grapple with our climate change transitions. Nonetheless, over the past fifty years, our energy economy and models have suggested new approaches to our changing energy landscape.